My Super Bowl Prediction

With the Super Bowl just about 4 days away, it’s time for me to make my prediction.

I think the game will be pretty close, closer than many think. The Cardinals are a good team; the Steelers don’t hold as big of an edge as many believe.

Let’s break it down:

The Cardinals definitely have the better offense because it has the ability to just go off. They can score points in bunches. Pittsburgh has a solid offense, but they don’t have that big play ability to go off. However, they’re more run oriented than Arizona, meaning they can control the game clock and manage the game a little better. My vote for the better offensive team still goes to Arizona though.

The Steelers have the better defense, hands down. The Cardinals have a much improved defense over the regular season, but it’s still not as strong as the Steelers’ unit, which is the best in the league.

For special teams, I think the two teams are pretty close. I give the slight edge to the Cardinals though because I think Neil Rackers is one of the best kickers in the game.

The two coaching staffs are extremely good as well. Tomlin and Whisenhunt are both very good coaches in just their second year at the helm. I’m also looking forward to Pittsburgh’s D-Coordinator, Dick LeBeau, matching wits with Arizona Offensive Coordinator, Todd Haley. I actually can’t make a choice with this one. The two staffs are both good and it’s too close to call.

I think Pittsburgh possesses the intangibles, the main of which is experience. Many Pittsburgh players were on the team back when the Steelers beat the Seahawks in Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie year. They all learned from that and know what to expect. Their nerves won’t be as quite on edge as many of the Cardinals will at the start of the game. Kurt Warner has been to the big one before, but have many of the other Cardinals’ players?

Looking at my categories, if I would just calculate who won the most categories it comes out as a tie, 2-2 with one tie. I think the intangibles put the Steelers over the top. My call is Steelers, 24-20.

But just for the record, I will be rooting for Arizona. How can you not (unless of course you’re a Steelers fan or hater)? They’ve been so bad for so long, it would be great to see them win this one.

What Would You Ask the President To Change in the Sporting World?

Today was an historical day for our country with the swearing in of President Barack Obama. He has a lot of things he will now have to devote his attention to. However, much has been made about the new President’s love of sports. After President Obama voiced his opinions on the BCS system, many thought changing that flawed system would be one of his goals. He has since stated that he will not use his powers as President to try and initiate changes to it,  but many in the sports media have still contemplated possible changes he could make. Mike and Mike even provided listeners with the one thing in sports they would like to see President Obama change.

Just for the record, I personally think the newly sworn-in President has much more important matters to think about than issues in sports.

But just for fun, I’d like to hear from you. If you could ask President Obama to change one thing in sports, what would it be?

Super Bowl Storylines for the Next Two Weeks

Does anyone like that we have to wait 2 weeks now to watch the Super Bowl? What’s the point of the two week span from the NFL conference championships to the Super Bowl? It’s money…… Well, it’s actually buzz, which then leads to money. Two weeks gives the NFL a second week for the media to run storylines and talk about the big game, building buzz for it beyond those that watch the NFL each week. These storylines, that will run everywhere from ESPN to blogs to the major networks, will reach new people that they hope to pull in to watch the Super Bowl. Then they hope to convert those casual fans into more loyal ones. Example: Let’s say a guy’s girlfriend hears about Kurt Warner and his story, tunes into the big game and roots for Kurt’s Cardinals, and always will remember what she heard about Kurt. Maybe she becomes a Kurt/Cardinals fan and will be interested in catching some of his games next year.

I know what you’re thinking – that’s not going to happen. In most cases, yes, but it could, and the NFL hopes so. Most of the storylines will not appeal to people that don’t regularly follow the league. Most of them will be for those of us that watch week in and week out, but every once in a while you’ll get a story that has mass appeal.

The storylines have become pretty predictable:

• Kurt Warner’s journey revisited (grocery store to Super Bowl…and now back to the Super Bowl again.
• Cardinal head coach Ken Whisenhunt and offensive line coach Russ Grimm playing their old team, the one that passed over both of them when choosing a head coach in favor of Mike Tomlin.
• The Anquan Boldin saga: Was his heated sideline conversation with offensive coordinator Todd Haley blown out of proportion? Or are there really negative feelings between the two?
• Ben Roethlisberger and his concussions.
• Mike Tomlin – will he become the second african-american head coach to win a Super Bowl? I sense some Tomlin/Tony Dungy storylines as well. Tomlin coached under Dungy and was mentored by him, and Dungy of course was the first african-american coach to win a Super Bowl.
• Power/physicality vs. speed/finesse. The Steelers are the former while the Cardinals are the latter.

I’m sure there will be many more, this is just a starting point. Enjoy the stories these next two weeks!

NFL Conference Championships: Post-Games Wrap-Up

Now that yesterday’s are over, let’s see how I did. Last week I predicted that Pittsburgh and Philadelphia would be left standing at the end of the day for an all Pennsylvania Super Bowl. I was half right, going 1-1 with my picks. The Steelers did beat the Ravens, but the Eagles lost to the Cardinals.

The Cardinals-Eagles game was a tough one to pick. I’m not very surprised Arizona won. Read my prediction post, I made this comment in reference to the Cardinals:

And I actually think they could win the game.

They’ve become a good, solid team. They showed that last week in Carolina and proved it to the world yesterday against Philly. We all know about their offense, but their defense has come around. Yes, this really is a championship caliber team.

Did anyone see the sign an Arizona fan was holding during one of Fox’s crowd shots?

“We are who we thought we were!”

(In reference to the famous rant by former Cardinals coach Dennis Green, of course. By the way, has there ever been a better rant by an NFL coach? That one is legendary in my mind. Much better than even Jim Mora or Herm Edwards.)

An interesting point, it doesn’t seem like this Arizona team has not changed much since Green was the coach. Is Ken Whisenhunt the difference? Or has the team finally matured together? Or were they just a few personnel changes away from making the jump (like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie)? Hard to say.

I think Pittsburgh proved, after beating Baltimore for the third time this season, that it really is the class of the NFL. They were one of the top teams at the beginning of the season and remained that way for the duration.

My prediction for the Super Bowl will come closer to the big game, since the NFL makes us wait for two weeks….during which we’ll see every angle possible outlined by the news media (which actually could make for another post in itself – stay tuned for that……..)

Jim Caldwell – Tony Dungy’s Twin?

No, I’m not insinuating that new Colts coach and recently retired Colts coach Tony Dungy are actually blood brothers. But I’ve been reading a lot of statements like, “Caldwell is not Dungy’s identical twin” in various coverage clips of Caldwell’s appointment as head coach. These statements are coming not only from reporters, but also from team representatives like Colts president Bill Polian making comments like Caldwell isn’t ‘Tony Dungy Lite.’

I guess I don’t really understand why the Colts and others are trying to distance Caldwell from Dungy. I think the Colts could do much, much worse than having Caldwell end up being a clone of Tony Dungy. Personally, if I were a Colts fan, I think I would hope that Jim Caldwell is exactly that – a clone or twin of Tony Dungy. At this point we’ve seen articles all over about Dungy’s NFL accomplishments and strong faith so I won’t go into detail on those. I’ll simply say Dungy is one of the most successful football coaches in the history of the league. I feel like he’s always been underrated. Jim Caldwell learned from one of the best, a guy that in my mind deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame someday. So everyone, please stop with the comments that Caldwell is not a Tony Dungy. Caldwell is his own man, but if he approaches his new job in the same way Dungy formerly did, the Colts will be in a good place and Caldwell will make a name for himself.

NFL Conference Championships

Before I give my thoughts on the conference championships I thought it would be fun to take a look back at how I did with my predictions for the NFL playoffs.

Yes, I took a bit of time off since I last posted. Ok, yes, bit is an understatement…. It’s been a long time since I last wrote. But I’m back in the game now.

Back in August, before the season started, I made my predictions on which teams would make the playoffs. It’s going out on a limb a bit to make predictions on playoff teams before the season starts, but I figured what the hell, why not?

In the AFC I thought the division winners would be the Patriots, Steelers, Colts and Chargers, with the wild card spots going to the Jets and Jaguars. I didn’t do terrible…. I was correct on two of the division winners – Pittsburgh and San Diego. The Colts made the playoffs, just didn’t win their division. The Patriots and Jets were in contention for playoff spots, so I wasn’t totally off on those either.

In the NFC I predicted that the Giants, Packers, Bucs and Seahawks would win their divisions and the Cowboys and Panthers would be wild card teams. I went terribly wrong with the Packers and Seahawks. The Giants were the only division winner I correctly predicted. The others either made the playoffs or were in contention.

I’m not too upset with how I did. It was pre-season picks, it really is a crapshoot. Better luck to me next year I guess.

Now on to what I think will happen this weekend in the conference championships:

NFC Championship – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals

Would anyone have predicted at the beginning of the year that the conference championship would be played at the University of Phoenix Stadium? Didn’t think so. Just based on that I would love to see the Cardinals win this game. And I actually think they could win the game. Their defense last week played great and completely shut Carolina down. Jake Delhomme I’m sure wanted to go home after the first half. Arizona’s offense speaks for itself. Kurt Warner is playoff tested and will provide a lot of leadership for the Cards.

After saying all that, I think the Eagles will win the game though. Philly’s defense is better than Arizona’s and has been more reliable week in and week out. Donovan’s just as playoff tested as Warner. Ok…..you’re right, he hasn’t won the big one like Kurt. Let me rephrase that – Donovan’s just as playoff tested as Warner in conference championship games. There, that’s more accurate. Most importantly, Brian Westbrook will not have two bad games in a row. The guy’s a stud and will show up for this game.

The game will be very competitive, but in the end, the Eagles defensive unit will make one more stop that will be the difference.

Philadelphia – 24,  Arizona – 21

AFC Championship – Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s very hard to beat a team three times in one season. This had me leaning toward Baltimore. Until I did a little research…

On this Sportsbetting forum (note that I don’t condone sportsbetting – it loses you lots of $$$  – but the data here is great), it was shown that 18 times in the history of the NFL, teams have met for a third time when one team won the first two meetings. I learned that 62% of the time the team that won the first two meetings also won the third. So while it is hard, it’s not quite as difficult as I originally thought.

Pittsburgh is the better overall team. The Ravens have a great defense, a better than expected offense, but I think the Steelers reign supreme in both categories. Roethlisberger is battle tested, Flacco is not. I think the game could ultimately come down to that.

I think we’re looking at a Pennsylvania Bowl via Tampa for the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh – 17, Baltimore – 10