NFL Preview: AFC East

As I mentioned yesterday, I’m beginning a series of posts giving my predictions for each NFL division. Each day I’ll take a look at a different division. Today I’m starting with the AFC East.

Predicted order of finish:

1. New England Patriots

2. New York Jets

3. Buffalo Bills

4. Miami Dolphins

James Sanders

New England – The Super Bowl runner-up will return strong this year, favored by many to return to the big one. Offensively I expect the Pats to put up similar numbers as they did last year. Defensively though, I think they’ll give up more points. Their secondary is very thin now after off-season transactions with Fernando Bryant starting at left corner and James Sanders starting at free safety. Who and who? Exactly….. I think Brandon Meriweather will move into the starting free safety role by week 10. Also worth noting is that New England’s linebacking corp continues to age. They’ve done a reasonable job getting younger at the position through the draft, so I expect to see younger players like Jerod Mayo and Bo Ruud gradually get more playing time as the year progresses. I think this could be the end of the line for some of their aging ‘backers.

 

 

New York – The major question for the Jets going into the season is who will be lining up behind center. Will it be Chad Pennington or Kellen Clemens? My money’s on Pennington, although I could see the QB issue being a problem area for the Jets all year long. The offensive line looks strong though – inserting new Jet, Alan Faneca, into the left side of a line along with solid young players Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson will pay dividends for Eric Mangini immediately. The Jets also quietly added Pro Bowl FB, Tony Richardson, during the offseason. Thomas Jones has all the pieces in front of him for a huge season; will he take advantage of it? Mangini has also assembled a solid defense with players like Vernon Gholston, Darrelle Revis, Kris Jenkins, and long-time Jet, Shaun Ellis. If the Jets continue their improvement, and add a QB, over the next couple years I sense the Jets overtaking the Pats in the division.

 

Buffalo – The Bills have plenty to build upon from last year’s 7-9 season, especially offensively. The Bills upgraded their wide receivers so that QB, Trent Edwards, now has has a deeper receiving unit including Lee Evans, Josh Reed, James Hardy, and Roscoe Parrish. Will that be enough to take pressure off of RB, Marshawn Lynch, though? Some of the real questions for Buffalo are on the defensive side of the ball. A major one is will LB, Paul Posluszny, bounce back from a season ending leg injury last year to anchor the defense? The Bills hope so. If they want a fighting chance to earn a wild card birth they’ll probably need to take a game from New England so they’ll need a solid defense – ’cause no one’s outscoring Brady and company.

 

Miami – Bill Parcells has a tradition of making significant improvements to an organization’s record in his very first year. This first year with the Dolphins will not follow that pattern. I think his stubborn nature may have gotten the best of him this time. Getting rid of Jason Taylor, your best defensive player was a mistake. The defense doesn’t have a lot of positive points left on it. The Dolphins are also trying to figure who their QB will be this year, as well as in the future. My guess is that Chad Henne will beat out John Beck for the job, but is either Henne or Beck actually the type of QB Parcells wants down the road? The one positive I see with this team is that the word out of Miami is that Ricky Williams has looked good in preseason workouts. Pairing him with Ronnie Brown – if Ronnie can stay healthy all year and Ricky can lay off the grass (both very optimistic views….) – should provide Miami with a decent ground game on offense. The question left in my mind is, can the Dolphins actually be worse than last year? I wouldn’t think so, but it seems like it could be a very real possibility.

Yankees Add Some Beef

In what I see as a pretty stunning move, the New York Yankees today acquired 14-time All Star catcher, Pudge Rodriguez. In exchange for Rodriguez the Tigers received reliever, Kyle Farnsworth. I find it surprising that the Tigers are willing to part with Rodriguez. Yes, they need bullpen help, but I don’t see Farnsworth as equal payment for Pudge. Since his start with the Cubs, he’s been a pitcher said to have lots of potential….potential that’s never really been reached.

This does set the Yanks up nicely for the second half and (possibly) playoffs. Pudge doesn’t put up the numbers he did in the late ’90s and early 2000s, but they’re still solid numbers. They Yankees have put themselves back in contention and I think we’re in for a fascinating three dog fight down the stretch between New York, Boston and Tampa.

The Tigers, on the other hand, only list one catcher on their depth chart – Brandon Inge. Dane Sardinha is also on the active roster, but are they counting on Inge to hold the job permanently now after splitting time with Pudge. Seems like a somewhat radical move for a team only 5.5 games out of first place.

NFL Preview

Starting tomorrow, I’ll be giving my division by division predictions for the upcoming NFL season. I won’t go so far as to pick a Super Bowl champ (but may do that right before the season starts), but will give my thoughts on the order in which the teams will finish in each division.

Be sure to join the conversation and tell me where you agree and where you think I’m crazy.

First up tomorrow: AFC East

Teixeira to Anaheim

Wow. With the acquisition of Mark Teixeira today, the Anaheim Angels (yes, I still insist on calling them that – they’re not located in LA, sorry…) now firmly established themselves as the team to beat in baseball. The Red Sox, Brewers, Cubs, Yankees have become trendy World Series picks, but for some time now I’ve thought the Angels were the team to beat (just look at that starting pitching staff: Santana, Saunders, Lackey, Garland, Weaver), so this, in my opinion, puts them out of touch (barring any injuries, of course). Teixeira’s bat in that lineup really strengthens it.

My question about this deal is, did Atlanta seriously not get any better offers? Casey Kotchman and a low pitching prospect doesn’t seem like much in return. Teixeira seems like he’d warrant more, at least one more prospect.

Grant Doesn’t Report to Camp

This post is a follow-up to my previous post on Ted Thompson’s bumbling of the Brett Favre situation, however it will not focus on Favre. While Ted’s wasted much of the summer worrying about, and trying to avoid, the Favre fiasco, it went unnoticed by many that the Packers had only one player on their current active roster not show up to training camp on Sunday – running back, Ryan Grant.

An ESPN article reported that Grant is an Exlusive-Rights Free Agent (ERFA). According to Wikipedia, ERFAs have finished between 0-2 seasons in the NFL at the time their contract expires. If tendered, they have no negotiating rights with other teams and must sign their tender with their old team or sit out the season. Grant has refused to sign the tender, thus his reason for failing to report to camp. The Wikipedia definition has me a bit confused though since I’ve heard elsewhere that Grant has two seasons left on his contract, so I’m curious to find out what the accurate story really is.

Grant had a great second half last year and deserves a long term contract; he’s clearly established himself as the Pack’s RB of the present and future. The situation isn’t worrisome at this point, many players in contract negotiations don’t report to camp right away. It just seems that the situation could’ve been avoided altogether earlier in the summer, but instead of focusing on re-signing Grant, Thompson directed his efforts and time at determining where Brett Favre would be next year. Wait…….no, he didn’t…. Ok, a bit harsh – Thompson has signed all the Packers’ draft picks to contracts. However, it’s now time for the Pack’s GM to focus. He’s put himself in a situation now where he will have to work quickly to both resign Grant and move Favre. He needs Grant in camp soon and also wants to avoid Favre reporting to camp. Favre has given the team until Tuesday to make some decision before he reports.

Give Grant the contract he deserves, Ted. Brandon Jackson and Deshawn Wynn are not guys that can produce the same number, even when combined, that Grant put up last year.

Ted’s Big Fumble

Let me start this post by saying I don’t have a complete hatred for Packers GM, Ted Thompson, like some other Packers fans have expressed. Sure, some of his draft choices have caused all of us to scratch our heads at the time (Justin Harrell?…), but things seemed to work out in the long run and he has made some very wise choices – A.J. Hawk, Greg Jennings, James Jones.

However, over the past several weeks as this Brett Favre situation has become increasingly ridiculous it’s pretty apparent that Thompson is not only an egomaniac, but also does not have the skills necessary to run a team (he could also use some PR training). The guy tried to let the situation sweep itself under the rug, hoping Favre would back down and stay retired. Well, Ted, Brett hasn’t done that – he actually does want to play. Now it appears Thompson is very scared of what could end up happening to him based on a phone interview between Favre and ESPN’s Chris Mortensen:

“I asked Ted [Saturday], ‘Am I welcome in the building if I report?’ and Ted was just about shattered,” said Favre in a telephone interview. “He said, ‘Brett, you can’t do that — you’ll get me fired.’ I told him I’m not trying to get anybody fired. So Ted asked me to let the guys report and let’s try to resolve this over the next two or three days.”

Hmmmm….so Ted, you’re only now realizing that by dragging this thing out you’ve been on the verge of creating a QB controversey within the organization? I saw this coming from the beginning. You screwed up, and you screwed up big time.

I’ll dismiss the fact that you don’t want Brett back. I still insist he gives you a better chance to win this year than Aaron Rodgers (maybe the job of an NFL GM has changed and it’s not to try to get your team to the Super Bowl?), but I won’t linger on that fact. When you first heard Favre wanted to come back you should’ve reacted immediately to avoid any of this. Alter your vacation (yes, we all still remember your silence when this first came out), contact Brett directly, find out the reality of the situation. Then act. You don’t want him back, so that very moment at the beginning, start looking at alternatives. Talk quietly with Brett and other teams and try to work something out. By trying to sweep it all under the rug you’ve put your organization in a bad situation. Teams now know you’re desperate to move Favre, so you won’t get even close to his market value (you want a first rounder, I think you’ll be lucky to get a third rounder now). If you continue acting in your stubborn ways, Tuesday will be here before you know it and Brett will report to camp. You’ll have a split locker room, Rodgers’ confidence will start slipping, and you’re in a world of trouble you can’t even imagine.

Oh, and Ted, one more thing – if the Packers win any less than 9 games this year after nearly making the Super Bowl last year, then I have a feeling you will be out of a job. I hope you straighten this whole thing out.

Casey At Bat (just not in Cleveland anymore….)

 

Good luck, Casey

Early today it was announced that the Indians traded 3rd baseman, Casey Blake, to the Dodgers in return for a couple minor leaguers and cash. I have to say after the CC trade I’d been expecting Casey to be the next Indian traded, so the trade doesn’t surprise me at all. He would’ve been a free agent at the end of the year and, while a solid player, didn’t seem to be in the club’s long term plans. Better to get something out of him now rather than let him walk away at the end of the season.

While I understand the reasoning behind trading him, I’m still sad to see Casey go. Blake was never an all star, but he was a reliable everyday player and a good clubhouse guy. Oh yeah, and that guy can grow one helluva beard. I’ve seen on others blogs that some Indians fans are glad to see him go, saying he never came through in the clutch…..uhhh, I would say those guys don’t follow his stats very much…..this year he’s hitting .398 with runners in scoring position. I’d say that’s pretty clutch.

What really surprised me about the trade is what the Indians received back from LA, an A ball stud catcher named Carlos Santana. I never thought Blake would warrant such a talented prospect. I’m hoping the Indians got a steal and he turns into their catcher of the future. The writing’s on the wall that Victor will not be playing catcher much longer. I see him playing more and more first base so the opening is there for Santana to take advantage of.

The deal does leave a hole in the infield. Andy Marte has long been crowned the Indians’ third baseman of the future. Unfortunately we’ve been waiting on the future for about 3 years as he’s yet to establish himself at the plate. This is his opportunity. I hope he does take advantage of it, but if he doesn’t I see some shifting next year. Maybe a free agent signing. Or there’s the possibility of moving the defensively liable Jhonny Peralta from SS to 3rd and shifting Asdrubal Cabrera from 2nd to SS where his defensive skills can be better used. Of course Cabrera needs to make some improvements at the plate himself. We shall see.

Best of luck in LA, Casey.